It’s an annual rite of fantasy baseball spring: the search for the sleeper. The elusive, heart-stopping, adrenaline-rushing feeling of sneaking by the next 30-30 superstar for a small price at your auction. Not only does it help your team for the season, but every time your fellow owners look at your roster, they will see the sleeper and call and tell you “How did you get him for that price?” as your ego swells.
The Internet and sites such as this one have made the hunt for the super sleeper picks even more elusive. In fact, I would argue it is hardly possible to get a true sleeper anymore. It is now more important to have great auction and draft-day skills. Nonetheless, even this rotoexpert gets sucked into the allure of finding the sleeper pick.
My AL-Only fantasy baseball auction was this past Saturday. I had some strong opinions on a couple of sleeper picks and soon was left wincing as their prices skyrocketed from sleeper to overpriced rather quickly. For those still having auctions over the next 2 weeks, I offer you this advice. Realize I am not exposing your sleepers at all. I am waking you up to the reality that everyone knows about these players so plan accordingly.
A little background on my league to put the prices in context. It is an AL-only league that was started in 1983 while on a little-league all-star bus ride when we were 13 years old. It got disbanded a few years after and then restarted in 1995. It is an 11-team auction league, AL-only, 5X5, and the draft had 20% inflation going into the auction.
Josh Hamilton $30 - That is not a misprint. I absolutely love the guy and think he will be a solid $20 OF. I brought him up about 70% of the way through the draft, figuring I had better not hoard my remaining dough just to ensure I got him. Good thing. As the bidding escalated, I felt I would get him around $16. It kept going. I chimed in and hoped for $20. A new bidder emerged out of the woodworks (I HATE those) and his bidding skyrocketed to $30. I strongly advise you to make a move for Hamilton. But $30 is extremely risky.
Carlos Gomez $12 - A 22-year-old outfielder that hadn’t been handed the official job yet. He came up at the tail end of the draft. I had max bid $11 and only a few spots to fill. I was psyched to grab this speedster. The one owner left with a ton of money (there is always at least one) trumped my max bid. Gomez should be good for 30 sbs at a minimum, quite possibly closer to 50. Bid accordingly.
Miguel Cabrera $52 - Cabrera is obviously not a sleeper. He’s a fantasy baseball stud. But I just wanted you to see that he is going for the same price as A-rod. Don’t count on him at $40 or you won’t get him. And if you do, can I please join your league?
Joe Saunders $9 - The Angels have a knack for developing starting pitching. Saunders appears to be the next good one to come along. At least one other owner will know this.
Jason Kubel $20 - I love this guy, not at this price. Twins outfielders were definitely on people’s radars.
JD Drew $20 - JD is the player everyone loves to hate. But his strong September and postseason caught a few owner’s eyes. He’s be a great gamble at $7, at $20 he has to come up huge…I believe he already sat out opening day hurt, figures.
Jerry Owens $15 - My league loves speed. Know your owners! I was stuck bidding him up, my team was a bunch of snails and I had to get a speedster.
As you review the above list, keep in mind our league is a keeper league with 20% price inflation. If you don’t know what I mean by that, you need this site more than ever.
Going into your action expecting to score a lot of high-talent keepers near the end means that you are the one sleeping. Target the players you want, pay fair prices, swoop in for bargains, and rely on the rotoexperts.
You can read more from this author at http://www.scottdblog.com